Approaching April and warmer temperatures herald yet another spike in those making that perilous lottery of a journey across the Mediterranean from North Africa. Between 2011 and 2016, some 630,000 irregular migrants and refugees reached Italy via the central Mediterranean.
So far, 593 people have drowned or gone missing in Mediterranean crossings this year, to add to the 13,000 who died in the preceding five years. Last year was the deadliest so far. In addition, nobody knows how many die in the desert, in many ways a more perilous journey. Of those using this route, around 55 percent are migrants rather than refugees, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
The famine in East Africa and Yemen have increased the push factors, yet still most travel up to Libya via Niger. The other factor has been the success of the 2016 EU-Turkey agreement in drying up the eastern Aegean route for the time being. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), new routes are opening up, one of them from Bangladesh to Libya.
Europe is still struggling in how to respond. Italy abandoned its Mare Nostrum search and rescue project in 2014 to send a message to migrants that the route was too dangerous. Aside from abandoning its legal obligations to rescue at sea, it also underestimated people’s desperation. The EU had to develop its own search and rescue program, Operation Triton.
If anything, the journey is getting more dangerous. One person involved in search and rescue objected to the term “boats,” pointing out that “these are just lilos with sides.” Around 70 percent are using these rubber dinghies, which have no chance of reaching Italy. Migrants are warned they will be killed if they turn back.
In simplistic terms, it is a classic struggle between national interests and humanitarian values. Yet voters across Europe are largely voting against any inform of increased immigration or even assistance to asylum-seekers. Politicians have to be responsive to their electorates. The challenge is therefore how to reach out to voters. This is more likely if the situation is clearly explained and a credible plan is proposed.
The main challenge is how to incentivize North African and Sahel countries to process migrants when they have no desire to do so and are very reluctant to host them. Forced returns will not be welcomed.
Many hard-liners look to Australia, where the government decided that anyone arriving by boat would be returned to their country of origin. This defies international law but proved electorally popular. The opposing argument is that this is inhumanity encourages other countries to close their borders. For example, if Jordan knows that Syrian refugees cannot move onward to other states, it is more likely to stop them entering in the first place.
The current EU approach is to work with the sending and transit countries to try to stem the flow. This includes helping to train the Libyan coast guard and finding ways to control Libya’s land borders. The challenge is that there are no legitimate, competent authorities to work with in a country dominated by three or four competing powers at any one time.
The EU Summit in February outlined plans to set up reception centers there, but can anyone really believe that migrants are safe in the warzone that is Libya? Many of the existing detention centers are run by armed militias, and are terrifying hellholes.
The main challenge will be how to incentivize North African and Sahel countries to process migrants when they have no desire to do so and are very reluctant to host them. Forced returns will not be welcomed, but will the EU open legal avenues for work permits from these countries in the teeth of public opinion In Europe?
The EU will need to develop a relocation and return scheme, more efficiently processing those who arrive, and returning those who do not need protection. European countries will also have to agree to take in more refugees, but in a controlled manner that does not fuel the lucrative smuggling trade.
Europe has yet to find an answer to a crisis that is not going to disappear. Italy and Greece are being left unfairly to carry the burden of hosting these refugees, something they can ill afford. The current ad hoc situation means migrants’ welfare is still at huge risk, with thousands willing to put their lives on the line, while allowing the far-right to profit from voter unease and anger.
Violent extremists will abuse this opportunity to exploit this route for their lethal ends. The EU faces being overwhelmed once again if it does not find ways to coordinate and agree a common strategy.
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