On August 21, US President Donald Trump outlined his much-awaited Afghanistan policy in a televised speech to troops at Fort Myer, Virginia. The key takeaways from the speech were:
- Instead of troop numbers and timetables for withdrawal, the ground conditions in Afghanistan would determine strategy.
- Expanded authority to ground-level commanders to hunt down terrorists instead of micromanagement from Washington DC.
- Open warning to Pakistan for its duplicitous role in Afghanistan.
- No 'blank check' for US presence in Afghanistan.
Trump has come a long way since his 2012 tweet that 'Afghanistan is a complete waste. Time to come home!' He justified this additional deployment on the grounds that the 'consequences of a rapid exit are both predictable and unacceptable. A hasty withdrawal would create a vacuum that terrorists, including ISIS and Al Qaeda, would hastily fill'. In reality, Trump's room to manoeuvre was restricted. Given the Taliban victories in 2017 and the heavy casualties among Afghan security forces (average of 31 personnel killed daily), not doing anything was hardly an option. Neither was leaving since it could potentially, as Trump put it, 'create a vacuum for terrorists, including ISIS and Al Qaeda'.
The key to 4,000 additional troops making a difference is, of course, Pakistan acting against the terrorist sanctuaries on its territories. In this context, Trump's warning to Pakistan was direct and ominous:
- 'We can no longer be silent about Pakistan's safe havens for terrorist organisations, the Taliban and other groups that pose a threat to the region and beyond.'
- 'We have been paying Pakistan billions and billions of dollars, at the same time they are housing the very terrorists that we are fighting. That will have to change and that will change immediately.'
- 'No partnership can survive a country's harbouring of militants and terrorists who target US service members and officials. It is time for Pakistan to demonstrate its commitment to civilisation, order and to peace.'
These words are stronger than any used in the past by US presidents. It remains to be seen what mix of options the Trump administration would use to force Pakistan to cooperate. These could range from a major reduction in bilateral-multilateral aid to conducting enhanced drone strikes in Pakistan, like the one on Taliban chief Mullah Mansur in May 2016, to declaring Pakistan a terrorist state. The expected backlash from Pakistan, like closing the Ground Lines of Communications (GLOCs), would be something the US would have to factor in and develop alternatives to supply its troops in Afghanistan.
President Trump's reference to further developing a strategic partnership with India and asking India to provide additional economic assistance and development to Afghanistan would raise Pakistan's hackles even more.
However, in a bizarre manner, Trump linked this to India making 'billions of dollars in trade with the United States'. Linking Afghanistan to US-India trade is a puzzle that will keep pundits preoccupied. Both Presidents Bush and Obama failed in getting Pakistan to cooperate: they depended on Pakistan's help to defeat the Taliban while Pakistan duplicitously continued to bankroll the Taliban with American funds. Trump will fail too unless he is able to cut or at least severely damage the umbilical cord between the Taliban and Pakistan. His speech highlights that the US realises the Pakistan dilemma. The question is whether he can translate the tough words into action.
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